Posted: 15 May 2012 04:00 AM PDT

We believe the housing market is recovering. We believe that sales will be robust through the rest of the year. However, we also believe that the increase in demand will not impact prices in a big way as we think there will also be an increase in the supply of homes coming to the market. This increase in supply will offset the increase in demand. The increase in supply will be fueled by two categories of inventory:

1. Foreclosures entering the market as a result of the National Mortgage Settlement
2. Pent up supply of homeowners who have been unable to sell their homes over the last several years

There have been several recent headlines making strong statements about home values in the country. We must be sure to read the ENTIRE report – not just the headlines. Here are four headlines and the portion of the report that reflects the caution in their ‘cautious optimism’.

HEADLINE:

LPS Home Price Index Shows U.S. Home Price Increase of 0.2 Percent in February; Early Data Suggests Further Increase of 0.3 Percent is Likely During March

CAUTION:

“Reasons for caution are clear, as we’ve been here before. Non-seasonally adjusted prices increased for a few months in early 2009, 2010 and 2011 – trends that all ended by summer, after which all the gains – and then some – were lost. As is true this month, those temporary increases were on low sales volumes – about 30 percent lower than at any point since 1998. Furthermore, the inventory of distressed homes remains high, which will continue to put a drag on prices.”

HEADLINE:

Foreclosure hotspots show signs of housing turnaround

CAUTION:

“However, much will depend on the continued health of our economy, specifically job rates, and how lenders will release their foreclosure inventories now that the 49 state AG Agreement has been signed.”

HEADLINE:

Fiserv Expects Home Prices to Stabilize

CAUTION:

“On the other hand, nearly one-half of the metro areas, or 191, saw prices decrease by more than 2 percent, including double-digit losses in Atlanta (-12.8 percent), Reno, Nevada (-10.8 percent), and Tucson, Arizona (-10 percent).

In the fourth quarter of 2011, the average price of a U.S. single-family home fell four percent from the year-ago period, and Fiserv Case-Shiller projects a further decline of 0.8 percent by the end of 2012.”

HEADLINE:

Home Prices in March Show Monthly Gain: CoreLogic

CAUTION:

“Even with price gains above 5 percent for leading states and CBSAs, Capital Economics said in response to the CoreLogic report that over the year, prices are more likely to stabilize rather than make a dramatic climb.

“There are fears in some quarters, triggered by recent disappointing GDP and payrolls data, of a sharp slowdown in economic growth which could derail the fledgling improvement in the housing market,” said Paul Diggle, property economist for Capital Economics.”

Sales Are Up. Prices Still Have a Way To Go..

A key component to the success of a short sale involves working with a Mortgage Originator who is well versed in the short sale process. The short sale negotiation process is a patience testing task. The complications are many, however if the buyer is securing mortgage financing and is working with an originator that understands that short sale process the buyer and seller can be rest assured, in most circumstances, that the transaction will get to the closing table.

There a 5 key questions to ask when choosing an Mortgage Originator for the purchase of a short sale transaction.

1.) Are they versed in the Anatomy of the Short Sale process?

The proper mortgage origination process pertaining to a short sale purchase is a bit different than a normal non-distressed property purchase. However, it is always my belief that in order to lead the cavalry one must have sat in the saddle. Putting this in terms of the short sale process, in order to originate a loan for a buyer who is interested in a short sale, one must understand the entire anatomy of the short sale process. This includes the challenges that the sellers faces regarding financial difficulty and hardship, the challenges that the selling agents face regarding listing and negotiating the short payoff and most importantly the strict timelines that come along with a short sale transaction.

2.) Will they issue a “TRUE” pre-approval prior to Short Sale approval?

A complete short sale package should include a mortgage pre-approval for the buyer if the buyer is securing mortgage financing to purchase the property.  The originator should have taken a full mortgage application, documented income, assets, reviewed the buyers credit and submitted the file through the appropriate automated underwriting service (ex DU,LP) prior to issuing a pre-approval letter to the buyer.

The pre-approval process for a short sale transaction should not be any different than the pre-approval process in a non-distressed sale. Having said this,  we have closed over 2500 short sale transactions nationwide. Many times, because of the long timeframes that are involved in a short sale, originators are not properly pre-qualifying the buyer prior to short sale approval. Originators are waiting until the short sale is approved by the short selling bank to submit the client profile to underwriting and is some cases to even issue a complete pre-approval. That is too late!  In every circumstance the pre-approval process should be done thoroughly before the short sale approval.

3.) Will they order the appraisal prior to Short Sale approval?

In a non-distressed sale typically, once the purchase contract is signed, the Mortgage Originator or their processing team will then order the appraisal for the property so that it may be reviewed by underwriting. Underwriting will then make sure the property is acceptable as collateral based upon the loan that is being applied for.

This process should hold true if the buyer is buying a short sale. Many times however, the appraisal is not ordered until the short sale is approved by the short selling bank. Often, this will delay the closing timeframes.  Also, consider this, if the short selling bank based upon their appraisal, counters they buyer with a higher price, the buyer who has already had their appraisal done will have the ability to issue a rebuttal based on their appraisal.   The Buyer’s/Lender’s appraisal is a great tool to negotiate value disputes with  short selling banks.

4.) Will they communicate with the Short Sale Negotiator?

There is one line of communication that is a must during a short sale.  This is the communication between the Short Sale Negotiator and the Mortgage Originator. The Mortgage Originator should be in touch with the negotiator on a weekly or bi weekly basis to obtain the status of the negotiation. It is imperative that the originator be informed of such deadlines as closing dates, approval expirations, BPO time lines, contract changes etc.

5.) Will they keep the Buyer engaged throughout the process?

In a non-distressed sale the timelines are usually short from pre-approval to closing. The potential buyer will obtain a pre-approval for mortgage financing; they will shop for a home, make an offer and then close on the property.  Most cases this process takes between 30-60 days.

In contrast, the short sale purchase timeline could take the normal 30 to 45 days of shopping but, from the time a buyer puts an offer on a property to the time they actually close could take 90-120 days. During this time frame, the mortgage originator must keep the buyer engaged. The information gathered in the pre-approval process meaning paystubs, bank statements etc. will need to be updated appropriately so that when the short sale bank issues their approval the buyer is ready to close on time and within the approval guidelines.  All too often short sale negotiators are asked to obtain short sale approval extensions from the short selling bank because the buyer could not close on time. Most of this stems from the Mortgage Originator scrambling to obtain last minute documentation that could have been avoided if the buyer’s credit file was routinely updated throughout the entire short sale process.

In closing, with the abundance of short sale transactions permeating the marketplace, it is imperative that all interested parties to a short sale work with a Mortgage Professional that understands this segment of the marketplace. By keeping the 5 questions above in mind, you may alleviate the possibility of a short sale transaction failing because of buyer financing falling apart.

Short Sales: The Mortgage Originators Role in the Process.

Posted: 08 May 2012 04:00 AM PDT

It seems that there is a significant amount of confusion when it comes to purchasing a short sale. There are many misconceptions when it comes to this type of transaction, so below I have provided some information to potential buyers of short sales. If you are looking to purchase a short sale, understand that it is not the same as a normal sale and the approach is very different.  There could be several parties involved and issues that are unknown to the buyer and buyer’s agent that can affect the transaction. If you are looking to purchase a short sale here is some helpful information.

1. On average, to get a short sale approval, it can take 60-90 days.

There could be mortgage insurance and an end investor on the loan as well as the servicer, which means it has to go through three different processes. Bank of America could be the servicer on the loan but they do not actually own the loan, so, the short sale has to pass their guidelines, then go to the mortgage insurer if there is one, then to the end investor like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If you are a buyer and can’t wait at least 60-90 days for an approval and then another 30 days to go to closing, then you need to look at other houses. The worst thing you can do is tie up a house that is in a short sale with no intention of being patient while waiting for a short sale approval. Approvals can come sooner than 60 days, but industry standard is at least 60 days to get an approval or denial.

2. There is a general assumption that you can purchase a short sale for 40-50% under its listed price.  In a short sale the bank comes out and does a valuation of the property and will expect a slight discount, but will not accept a huge amount under the market value.

Hopefully, if the agent who is handling the sale is experienced, they will have already gotten an approved list price from the bank by the time you are interested in making an offer. The bank will usually be willing to negotiate on that price, but will not, in almost every case, take 40-50% off of that price. To that point, you may be able to get a reasonable deal on a short sale, though it will not be, in most cases, as much of a deal as you may be able to get on an REO (foreclosed property). Also to that point, most short sales will be in better condition than an REO. When you look at the potential repairs a comparable REO needs and the time and expense it can take to do those improvements vs. a short sale being sold at a slight market discount with improvements already made, the investment could even out. There are REO properties that can be picked up for a huge discount, but require massive repairs that a comparable short sale may not require.

3. Short sales are a very difficult process and it takes a qualified person to handle this type of transaction.

With this type of transaction it takes a very experienced agent on the listing side as well as the buying side. Make sure before you move forward on the transaction that the listing agent has ample experience dealing with these types of transactions, or you could be tied up in a contract for months that never goes to settlement. There are several different types of short sale processes and each bank’s process is somewhat different; it takes a professional who has had experience with all of these different types of short sales to help facilitate a successful transaction.

4. In most short sale transactions the properties are sold “as-is” and no repairs will be made.

Although there are some exceptions to this rule, speaking in general, short sales are sold “as-is” and no repairs will be made even if they are found during a home inspection. In most short sale transactions the bank will require both the buyer and the seller to sign an addendum that states the property is being sold “As-is” and no repairs will be made.

These are just a few short pointers for buyers who are looking to purchase a short sale as they are a reality in every market, and if you have the patience you may be able to get the home you are looking for at a discount!

Are You a Buyer Looking to Purchase a Short Sale?.

We believe that short sales will be a major part of the real estate market in 2012. That is why we have dedicated this entire week to posts exclusively on this subject. We hope that by the end of the week you have a better handle on the need for short sales and a better understanding of the process. – the KCM Crew

It seems that the banks have finally realized that a short sale is a better option than foreclosure for them, the homeowner and the neighborhood. It is for this reason we believe that 2012 will come to be known as the year of the short sale. CNN Money reported on this exact point:

“We believe 2012 could be a record year for short sales,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.

Banks are showing signs of being more open and willing to approve the deals — even if it means accepting less money. The average sales price for a short sale was $174,120 in January, down 4% from December and 10% year-over-year.

Market Watch also addressed the short sale situation recently:

Fitch expects the increase in short sales to continue because of the potential benefits afforded to both lenders and borrowers. Some borrowers may prefer short sales because, though they cannot stay in the property, they often walk away with cash incentives from lenders and healthier credit reports unmarred by foreclosure. For lenders, short sales provide a more efficient and cheaper alternative to the increasingly lengthy and costly foreclosure process.

Why Are the Banks Now Leaning Towards Short Sales?

The simple answer is that the banks lose less money when doing a short sale. The CNN Money article mentioned above explains:

Typically, banks get about 20% less for a foreclosed home. Foreclosure can also take years to unload, during which expenses, like property taxes, insurance and other expenses, mount up.

The Market Watch report breaks it down further:

Short sales…are currently getting completed 20 months after the last payment made on the loan, approximately 10 months less than the average time to foreclose. Shorter timelines reduce lenders’ carrying costs (i.e. accrued loan interest and property taxes, insurance, and maintenance) and eliminate most of the legal expenses associated with foreclosure and liquidation. As a result, loss severities tend to be considerably lower. Historically, for loans with similar attributes, short sales have severities 10%-15% less than REO sales. As the proportion of short sales increases, we expect average loss severities to improve further.

How Many Short Sales Could Be Completed?

JPMorgan has projected that over 500,000 short sales will be done this year. Also, NECN.com recently reported:

RealtyTrac estimates that if the January numbers it found hold up, there would be about 105,000 “pre-foreclosure” sales of homes, most of them short sales, during the first quarter of this year, and at that rate something like 400,000 for the year.

How Long Will Short Sales Be a Major Part of the Market?

The NECN article shows us that short sales are here to stay for some time.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are nearly 3.5 million homeowners delinquent on their mortgages by at least one month, including 1.5 million who are 90 days or more behind on paying their mortgage. And there are 12.5 million homeowners still who are “underwater,” owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth. That suggests that at the current rates, barring some spectacular economic recovery, it would take years, even decades, for short sales alone to clean up the mortgage mess that remains.

Short sales are here to stay. We must accept this fact and work hard to learn the process and apply it where it makes sense.

Short Sales Will Increase Dramatically in 2012.

Posted: 02 May 2012 04:00 AM PDT

We often discuss the difference between the PRICE and the COST of a home. We want buyers to realize, in many ways, the cost of a home is more important to them than the actual price. Obviously, price is part of the cost equation. The other piece, available financing, is also crucial. Soon, there will be major decisions finalized by the government regarding house financing moving forward. These decisions could negatively impact many buyers.

“QM” is a new term which stands for qualified mortgage. The new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection (CFPB) will be responsible for defining QM thereby setting the consumer guidelines banks and lending institutions must follow before issuing a mortgage.

Richard Cordray, the Director of CFPB, plans to finalize the definition this summer. The Center for Responsible Lending quotes American Banker on this timeline:

“The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will issue a final rule by the end of June defining what constitutes a ‘qualified mortgage’ that will be exempt from new rules compelling lenders to verify borrowers’ repayment ability.”

The fear of many is that the definition will be too ‘narrow’ resulting in many purchasers not being able to qualify for a mortgage under the QM definition. In a letter to Director Cordray, several industry organizations talk to this issue:

“Most economists and housing market analysts in government and in the private sector agree that today’s underwriting standards are tight and are contributing to a slow housing recovery. Our organizations believe that an unnecessarily narrow definition of QM that covers only a modest proportion of loan products and underwriting standards and serves only a small proportion of borrowers would undermine prospects for a housing recovery and threaten the redevelopment of a sound mortgage market…

We are convinced that the choices around this important rule, including in large measure the breadth of the QM standard, will affect sustainable homeownership for generations to come.” 

What Could This Mean To a Home Buyer?

If a buyer does not qualify under the new ‘QM’ rules, the cost of financing a home will increase. As the letter mentioned above states: 

“A narrowly defined QM would put many of today’s loans and borrowers into the non-QM market, which means that lenders and investors will face a high risk of an ability to pay violation and even a steering violation. As a result of these increased risks, these loans are unlikely to be made. In the unlikely event they are made, they will be far costlier, burdening families least able to bear the expense.”

Securing a mortgage before these new guidelines take effect may make sense to many buyers.

What Is QM and Why Does It Matter?.

Posted: 04 May 2012 04:00 AM PDT

[InfoGraphic]

Prices: 1Q 2012 vs. 4Q 2011.

 InfoGraphic

North Shore MA real Estate for sale

Yesterday, we reported on the adverse impact foreclosures have had and will continue to have on the children of this country. Today, we want to talk about how parents can soften the effect.

If you can’t keep your house, you must decide how to leave and determine the impact of your decision on your children.

From a financial standpoint, short sales are always the better option. From a pure family situation (both your family and the families in the neighborhood), you must also make a decision.

If you allow your home to go to foreclosure, you have two choices: move and leave the house vacant or stay and wait to be evicted.

The first option leaves your neighbors with an empty house and all the challenges which that creates for a neighborhood. The second choice can create even more stress for you and your children as you wait for the day an official knocks on your door demanding you and your family leave immediately

In contrast, the short sale process allows you to work with the bank and pre-determine the day you will move. The new owners usually move in the same day. Your family moves with a plan and you don’t leave the neighborhood with the headaches associated with a vacant house on the block. There is a level of dignity in this type of move that almost never takes place during the foreclosure process.

You may have heard of the nightmares that have surrounded short sales in the past. However, there is a new army of both real estate and mortgage professionals who have now been trained on the short sale process. They can help you. Reach out to them today.

In most cases, a short sale will be the right thing for you, your children and your neighbors’ children.

Brought to you by Beverly MA – Manchester MA real estate broker Bill Barbin

We were recently troubled by the findings of a research paper authored by Julia Isaacs of the Brookings Institute for the organization First Focus which was titled The Ongoing Impact of Foreclosures on Children. In the report, Ms. Isaacs quantified the number of children that have been impacted:

• 2.3 million children have already lost their homes to foreclosure
• 3 million additional children are at risk of losing their home

As the real estate broker that brings this North Shore MA real estate website to you, I can speak of this first-hand.

She also noted the four ways foreclosures may affect children negatively:

“First, and most obviously, families receiving foreclosure notices are much more likely to move than other families, and, … children who move frequently do less well in school.

Second, homeowners receiving a foreclosure notice are under a lot of financial and psychological stress, as they struggle to stay in their house, and if that fails, to find a new home quickly…parents under a lot of financial distress sometimes engage in harsher and less supportive parenting, which in turn can lead to negative behaviors on the part of children, making it harder for them to interact well with peers and in school.

Third, foreclosures and housing instability have a negative impact on physical as well as mental health, with studies finding higher rates of non-elective visits to emergency rooms and hospitals in ZIP codes with the highest foreclosure rates, as well as a strong association between housing instability and postponement of needed health care visits and necessary medications.

Finally, because foreclosures are often highly concentrated in certain neighborhoods, children living in or near foreclosed homes may suffer the consequences of living in neighborhoods with more vacant houses, higher crime rates, lower social cohesion, and a lower tax base.”

If you find that you are at risk of foreclosure, know your options. The new National Mortgage Settlement might give you a pathway to stay in your home.

You can get information on the opportunities the settlement offers here.

However, if you have exhausted all your options and now must decide between a short sale and foreclosure, analyze what is the best decision for you and your family. Tomorrow, we will discuss these choices.

Foreclosures: What About the Children? (Part 1).

It didn’t take long for the naysayers in real estate to jump all over the National Association of Realtors’ Existing Sales Report which was released last week. It is true that sales were down 2.6% from the previous month. However, monthly variations should not be the determining factor in deciding where the market is going. For example, in the same report, NAR explained that sales WERE UP 5.2% over last March’s numbers.

The experts should look at the key underlying data that truly determines where the market will be heading. Here is what leading economists in the housing industry are saying:

Paul Diggle, property economist, Capital Economics

“March’s decline in existing home sales probably reflects the normal month by month volatility rather than renewed underlying weakness. The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the housing market, coupled with a gradual improvement in the pace of the economic recovery, should drive a rise in home sales later this year….It is possible that the pattern within the quarter has been driven by the weather, with falls in the most recent two months reflecting a degree of payback after January’s gain.” 

Keep in mind: Full North Shore MA real estate search map is here.

Doug Duncan, chief economist, Fannie Mae

“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes. Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”

Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics, Moody’s

“The residential property market is recovering, as the factors underlying demand and supply strengthen. Even after accounting for unusual seasonal patterns brought on by the unusually warm winter, conditions have not been this strong since the government ended homebuyer tax credits in 2010.”

Mark Vitner, senior economist, Wells Fargo

“Existing home sales dropped 2.6 percent, but are up 5.2 percent from a year ago. While existing sales are down for the second consecutive month, we are likely continuing to see payback from increases earlier this year. That said, we could see one more month of disappointing data, but we still contend the recent declines are not indicative of the trend. Stabilization will become more apparent once we return to normal weather.”

Mark Fleming, chief economist, CoreLogic

“Since the peak in home prices, mortgages rates have declined and affordability has risen dramatically. Housing affordability is at levels not seen since prior to the early 1990s …While real estate professionals often say that “now is a good time to buy,” it is clear today that April 2006 was probably not a good time to buy, while now may well be the time.”

Everybody Calm Down – The Market IS Recovering.